Monday, 09 February 2009

  • I Have A 1% Chance of Finding My Dream Girl in San Jose

    A couple months ago, my church took a spiritual health survey of the entire congregation and recently reported the results to us during service. Amongst spiritual maturity data came basic demographic info, like how a large majority of the members were under 40 years old, and more importantly, how 46% of the church was already married. I suppose it's not a shocking figure in your standard small family church, but it is a brow-raising statistic for one populated almost entirely by young working professionals; let me explain...

    When I moved here, one of my friends was teasing me about this article she read in Cosmopolitan magazine...excerpt posted as follows:
    Men make up 75 percent of the technology workforce. In California, 78 percent of employees at Cisco Systems, an Internet networking business, are male.

    "Oh greeaaaaat....", I thought at the time. After a couple weeks in the area, said truths held themselves to be self-evident (e.g. every time you see someone who piques your interest, shift your eyes slightly to her left or her right, and tada! You're checking out her BF), and my new hometown was from then on affectionately known as Man Jose.

    Back to church. So when the statistic of 46% of us being married was announced, I looked at my friend next to me and witnessed the most crestfallen face I'd ever seen in my life. It was a facial expression that simultaneously conveyed a silent groan and a bloodcurdling wail of despair, and you could tell on the inside he was holding his face in his hands and weeping uncontrollably. I started giggling for a couple seconds, until it dawned on me that I was screwed too. Then I started thinking.
    • 46% married means that 54% are not married.
    • From the above Cosmo data, about 75% of Silicon Valley (tech center of the world) is male. From what I've seen in my company (Cisco Systems), the demographic trends towards older and more experienced (and as a result, married - let's say half of the female population), thus the actual percentage of available single (in the not legally married sense) females in the area is around 10% (100% - 75% males - 15% married females) of the total population.
      • Apply this awesome number (Man Jose Ratio) to the 54% unmarried population of the church and lo and behold, 5.4%! Okay, so that number's a nice mortgage rate but means horrible dating prospects in this context.
    • Just because they are single does not mean they are available. As outlined in the anecdote above, generally, when you see anyone you could be interested in, her BF is but an arm's length away. So cut the available number in half again and you're left with 2.7%
    • Now you are finally left with actual, available choices! But, nobody, well, most people don't date everything in sight or the first person that shows interest in them. Not only does she have to meet your standards, but you have to meet hers as well. So, we'll generously assume that 40% of the remaining number are compatible and interested, and the final number, the total, datable population of this Bay Area church is...
    1%.

    If you break down your city and job this way, what's your chance to find your dream girl or guy? 

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